III. Time Assessment and Economic Evaluation of the Rice Biotechnology Program

The Rice Biotechnology Program of the Rockefeller Foundation (RF), which was initiated in 1985, now supports approximately 130 projects. The research objectives reflect the priority traits built into the design of the program. The priority traits were ranked according to a report by R. Herdt (1991).

Table 1. Potential for producing insect-resistant or fungal disease-resistant
transgenic rice plants
_______________________________________________________________________________
Desired New Trait*  Target Insect or   Potentially Useful Genes for
                       Fungus             Transforming Rice
_______________________________________________________________________________
Insect Resistance   Yellow stemborer;      Genes encoding protease inhibitors:
                    Striped stemborer;     CpTi,PinII,SbTi; B.T. genes:
                    Rice leaffolder        cryIA(b),cryIA(c); RIP

                    Gall midge             cryIII,PinII, RIP genes

                    Brown planthopper;     GNA gene, RIP genes
                    Green leaffolder

Fungal Disease  R.solani (causative agent of     Genes encoding chitinases,
Resistance    sheath blight);P.oryzae (causa-    Beta-1,3-glucanases, RIPs,
                tive agent ot rice blast)     thionins, and antifungal peptides
_______________________________________________________________________________
*New traits in transgenic rice plants that can be produced via biotechnology.
More recently, a second survey, made by R. E. Evenson (1994), has identified five components of the rice biotechnology program. Two of these components, insect resistance and disease resistance, are briefly summarized in this report. These two components have been chosen because more facts are available for them and because these traits are usually controlled by single genes. Thus, they are more amenable to manipulation by applying biotechnology. These and other traits have formed a significant part of conventional rice breeding strategies over the past 20 years. This close parallel between the RF program design and conventional breeding has been used by R. E. Evenson in his assessment analysis and economic evaluation (1994), which are briefly summarized as follows.

Table 2 summarizes both optimistic and conservative estimates of the time required to conclude field trials of transgenic rice plants. Conservative estimates of the time required for the transgenic rice plants to reach farmer's fields are also included. As can be seen from Table 2, the optimistic estimate of the time required to achieve field trials of insect-resistant plants is six years from 1994, and the conservative estimate is 8-10 years.

Table 3 summarizes the estimates of the expected economic payoff as a result of successfully producing field-tested, insect-resistant and disease-resistant trans-

Table 2.  Estimated time to produce useful transgenic rice plants by
biotechnology
_______________________________________________________________________________
                     Optimistica      Conservativea      Conservativeb  
Desired New Trait    (Field Trials)   (Field Trials)     (Used by Farmers)
_______________________________________________________________________________
Insect resistancec         6               8-10               12-15
Disease resistancec        6               10-15              12-18
_______________________________________________________________________________
     a. Estimated time (in years) from 1994 to the time for field trials.
     b. Estimated time (in years) from 1994 to the time for farmers to grow
        the transgenic rice plants in the field.
     c. Transgenic rice harboring a single insect-resistant gene or a single
        disease-resistant gene.
Table 3.  Estimates of effects or benefits of the rice biotechnology programs
_______________________________________________________________________________
               Time to Productiona  
                        (Years)     Annual Effect or Benefit After Realization
Trait or Yield_________________________________________________________________
Enhancement     Opti-   Conser-  Areab    Yieldc    Quantityd    Valuee  
                                                    (million     (billion
                mistic  vative   (M ha)   (%)       tons)        dollars)
_______________________________________________________________________________
Multiple insect
resistancef       12      21       37       30        41           8.0

Multiple disease
resistanceg       15      22       50       15        27           5.4

Total Annual
Benefit                                                           13.4
_______________________________________________________________________________
     a.  Estimated time from 1994 to the time to production.
     b.  Area estimated based on incremental areas (in million hectares) to
         conventional breeding.
     c.  Estimated increase of yield bawd on India-Indonesia studies of R.E.
         Evenson (1994).
     d.  Increase in yield of rice in million tons.
     e.  Value in 1990 dollars.
     f.  Transgenic rice plants harboring several insect-resistant genes.  It
         would take 6-11 years longer to produce transgenic plants of this
         type than are required to produce plants harboring a single
         insect-resistant gene, as shown in Table 1.
     g.  Trangenic rice plants harboring several disease-resistant genes.
genic rice plants. As can be seen, the estimated annual benefit of using insect- resistant and disease-resistant transgenic rice plants in farmer's fields is 13.4 billion dollars. The benefit is expected to start around the year 2012 (the mid point between the optimistic and conservative estimates). If other biotechnolo- gy-based improvements, such as stress tolerance and general yield enhancement, are included (not shown in Table 3, but shown in Evenson's report), the estimated annual benefit will amount to over 30 billion dollars (Evenson 1994). Considering the fact that the Rockefeller Foundation's investment in the rice biotechnology program between 1985 and 1994 was around 60 million dollars (The RF 1993 Annual Report, p.11), and assuming that the support by the RF between 1995-2012 will be 240 million dollars, the total investment would be approximately 300 million dollars. The total financial support for rice biotechnology programs from all other sources between now and the year 2012 have been estimated to be close to 2.4 billion dollars. Thus, the projected annual benefit, starting from the year 2012, would be five times (13.4/2.7) larger than the total estimated support by RF and other sources between 1985 and 2012. A different way of calculating the annual benefit/cost ratio after the year 2012 is to divide $13.4 billion (total annual benefit) by $0.15 billion (estimated annual investment after the year 2012), which gives 90 as the benefit/cost ratio.

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